Labor Outlook for 2026
I recently came across a Nursery Management article from October, 2007, titled “Top Issues That Will Affect Your Business”. It talked about the findings of a survey of container growers that had been done to understand their top concerns and issues. The first bullet point on the list is: “Labor cost and availability”. Fast forward nearly 20 years, and labor is still the biggest challenge facing our industry. While specific concerns may change from year to year, overall, the rising cost of wages, limited availability of qualified labor, and barriers to automation remain as the biggest obstacles to finding a long-term solution to our labor problem.
But, as we look to the year ahead, it may be that we have a new frontrunner in terms of challenges to our labor force. Last fall, we saw the impact of increased immigration enforcement on our Chicago-area customers. This disruption came at the end of what was a strong season, with sales outpacing those of the previous year for most of us. While it ended the season early for many landscape contractors and re-wholesalers (and did so in a most demoralizing way at that), the ramifications could be much more impactful if ICE returns in full force this spring. A major disruption to the labor force during our most important time of the year would be difficult to recover from, to say the least. In some cases, the damage may already be done; there is evidence to show that the events of last fall have already created an environment of fear and unease that is causing a segment of the migrant workforce to leave the area entirely.
If domestic labor shortages are on the horizon, could the H-2A program be a possible solution? Maybe, but there’s a lot to consider. Findings from the 2025 Greenhouse Product News labor survey of growers showed that, while 43% of respondents reported having labor shortages last year, 75% were not using H-2A. This probably isn’t a big surprise to most of us. When it comes to the H-2A program, employers tend to be reluctant for a number of reasons, among them being a complicated legal process and high costs due to things like the Adverse Effect Wage Rate (AEWR), as well as transportation and housing costs.
One way to reduce the legal risk of compliance burdens when it comes to the H-2A program is to work with a third party, like an agent or association. There are a few different ways employers can do this. For instance, they can employ H-2A workers directly but hire a third party organization to help process the paperwork. Another option is to hire a full service labor contractor to source, manage, and deploy workers. In this type of arrangement, the labor contractor handles the recruitment and visa management process, they’re responsible for hiring and firing, and they take care of transportation and housing so that employers can focus on the day-to-day operations of their business. Another option is to hire H-2A employees as part of a joint employer association, where employers have different seasonal needs and move employees around accordingly.
Of course, it’s up to each of us as employers to decide whether the benefits of using the H-2A program will outweigh the costs. For many, simply having a predictable source of labor makes the program worth it. For others, H-2A isn’t a good fit. But one thing we’ve learned is that labor shortages in any segment of our industry will impact all of us. In order for us to be successful, not only do we need to be able to find labor, but so do our customers and our suppliers. Twenty years ago, labor was our industry’s top concern; will the same be true in another twenty? The issue of labor will most likely never be “solved” because it is inextricably linked with people and society, and this makes it complex, dynamic, and constantly changing. But, despite this, our industry today is stronger than ever. Much of this is due to work from industry organizations, like Landscape Illinois, who help to provide resources and keep us informed through all types of circumstances, but especially through the challenging times. It’s so important that we continue to work together to leverage our power so that we can continue going strong for another twenty years and beyond.
